2023 has been a significant year for maritime developments, with a range of incidents both reinforcing existing trends facing the commercial shipping sector and underscoring the industry’s vulnerability to significant geopolitical events.
Piracy has remained a major and consistent concern throughout the year – as will be explored in more detail below – with armed criminals threatening commercial vessels both at anchorage and while at sea. In 2023, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre recorded a total of 120 instances of piracy and robbery at sea, up 4.35% from the 2022 figure of 115. Despite the small increase witnessed this year, this is assessed to be in line with existing trends, as reported maritime piracy incidents have overall been on the decline globally over the past six years, despite the minor uptick seen in 2020 which bucked the trend.
Actual & attempted piracy incidents (2018-2023)
Sources: ICC International Maritime Bureau Piracy & Armed Robbery Against Ships 2022 Report, Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Report 2024.
Actual & attempted piracy incidents by location (2022-2023)
Sources: ICC International Maritime Bureau Piracy & Armed Robbery Against Ships 2023 report
While piracy risks have remained omnipresent across regional hotspots, the fourth quarter of 2023 also saw an unexpected and rapid security deterioration in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, in response to renewed conflict in Israel and Gaza. Maritime insecurity in the Red Sea garnered significant international attention towards the end of 2023, and despite a concerted multinational effort to secure shipping lanes, the threats facing vessels in transit and their operators are expected to remain present into the first quarter of 2024.
For 2023, the primary maritime security threat facing commercial shipping in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) was piracy. As one of the world’s most important shipping routes – especially for hydrocarbons – the GoG has historically faced high levels of maritime criminality, including theft from, hijacking of, and attacks on commercial ships while berthed, anchored, or at sea, as well as physical threats to crewmembers by armed criminals. Despite being previously overtaken by Southeast Asia as the global maritime insecurity hotspot in prior years, the GoG continues to serve as a high-risk waterway, and has seen a significant number of attacks and piracy-related incidents in the past year.
According to data from the Maritime Domain Awareness for Trade – Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG), a combined British-French naval security effort, the GoG saw 37 instances of maritime criminality reported to their piracy tracking centre in 2023. MDAT-GoG data suggests that the region saw the following incidents (actual and attempted), broken down by type.
Actual & attempted maritime incidents in the Gulf of Guinea by type (2023)
Sources: Maritime Domain Awareness for Trade – Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG) Piracy Map.
By far the most common incident type (actual and attempted) in the GoG was boardings, with 16 out of 37 incidents falling under this category in 2023, followed closely by thefts. In terms of vessel hijackings, the total for 2023 has stayed broadly consistent with the previous year’s figures; as noted in last year’s Annual Report, the GoG saw three hijacks reported to MDAT-GoG in 2022 (one in January and two in
December), and this has remained similar with just two reported in 2023 (one in July and one in August).
The year’s 37 reported incidents have also been fairly spread out over the year, but some months have seen an uptick in piracy reports when compared to others. Of particular note are March and April, which each saw seven incidents reported to MDAD-GoG, as well as a mid-year spike of six in July. The July spike is somewhat against expectations, as the Gulf of Guinea experiences a “rainy season” between the months of April and October, during which time piracy incidents in past years have typically fallen off due to inclement weather conditions and an increased likelihood of damage to lightweight pirate skiffs and their crews.
Actual & attempted maritime incidents in the Gulf of Guinea by month (2023)
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region this year has remained the geography most affected by instances if piracy and armed robbery, in terms of the number of incidents rported. According to the IMB data for 2023, the APAC region as a whole saw 75 reported incidents, with such incidents spanning the area from India’s western coast to the Philippines. Of these 75, all but five were reported in South-East Asia, and an overwhelming majority of 38 incidents were reported in the Singapore Straits, with the waterways between Singapore and Indonesia’s Riau Islands serving as the globe’s 2023 piracy hotspot. While the Singapore Straits saw the most, the neighbouring waterway of the Malacca Straits – which has also historically been a piracy hotspot – saw just one vessel targeted at sea while underway in its catchment area, though a number of incidents were reported at anchorages on the Indonesian side of the straits. In terms of the highest-risk anchorage, Manila Bay in the Philippines was the APAC anchorage that saw the most incidents concentrated in one locality, with eight. However, Indonesia was the country in the APAC region with the most separate anchorages that saw piracy incidents in 2023, with seven different facilities – Balongan, Batam, Belawan, Dumai, Panjang, Tanjung Priok, and Tarahan – all having incidents reported to the IMB.
Actual & attempted maritime incidents in Asia-Pacific by country (2023)
Sources: ICC International Maritime Bureau Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Report 2023
In addition to piracy, the APAC region has also been the scene of elevated tensions between China and its regional neighbours. Tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have continued throughout 2023, as numerous littoral states act to bolster their claims. Tensions between China and Malaysia escalated due to an uptick in confrontations involving their respective vessels. While the overall trajectory of increasing tensions in the SCS is of concern in the context of the overall longer-term maritime operating environment, incidents observed in 2023 largely represented localised spats that did not represent a threat to commercial vessels transiting through the region.
In terms of piracy, Latin America (LATAM) remains a prominent, though under-publicised, piracy flashpoint. In 2023, the region’s waterways saw 19 total instances of piracy-related criminality, according to data from the IMB. These attacks were perpetrated almost exclusively against vessels at anchorage or berthed at port, with just two incidents taking place targeting vessels that were underway. The overwhelming majority of incidents reported in the region took place in Peruvian waters, more specifically the Callao Anchorage, which saw more incidents this year – 14 in total – than the rest of the LATAM region combined. The Callao Anchorage services the Peruvian capital city of Lima, and has long been the region’s most dangerous anchorage. With 14 reported incidents, Callao is also the world’s most targeted anchorage globally in terms of pirate attacks, a designation it retains from our last report. In 2022, Callao reported 12 incidents to maritime authorities, meaning that with 14 reported this year, the anchorage has seen a 16.7% increase in incidents year-on-year.
The infrequency with which other maritime facilities are targeted across the LATAM region (such as those in Brazil, Colombia, etc.) suggests that any robberies or crimes targeting vessels that occurred were isolated and opportunistic in nature, rather than forming part of a wider trend. Indeed, the concentration of incidents at the Callao Anchorage may suggest that the LATAM region itself is not a piracy hub, but simply the country of Peru is, especially when compared to the rate of maritime crimes experienced by its neighbours and the overall dominance of Callao-based incidents over the reporting period.
Actual & attempted maritime incidents in Latin America (2023)
Sources: ICC International Maritime Bureau Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Report 2023.
Traditionally, European territorial waters see far fewer maritime security incidents when compared to other regions, both in terms of actual or attempted piracy operations and incidents as a result of inter-state conflict. Despite this, in 2023 the region’s waters were still afflicted by conflict-driven insecurity, with the Black Sea remaining an important battleground in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) – a deal between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey allowing for the safe transit of foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea – was set to expire in November 2022, but a series of UN-supported extensions to the deal saw the BSGI last well into 2023 before coming up for renewal yet again in July. However, this time the BSGI collapsed following Russia’s withdrawal, on the basis that their concessions for the deal had not been met, including assistance in fertiliser exports, removal of some sanctions, and re-entry of Russian banks into the SWIFT global financial platform. The end of the BSGI prompted fears that ships carrying grain – Ukrainian or otherwise – could be targeted by the Russian navy or by ground-based anti-ship weapons platforms, and insurers immediately began reviewing their coverage options for vessels travelling to Ukrainian ports, underscoring how developments in the geopolitical situation in the Black Sea can have a near-immediate effect on markets and highlighting their volatility during times of crisis.
Aside from the collapse of the BSGI, the Black Sea was the site of a number of Ukrainian military successes over their Russian opponents: on 24 May three sea-borne unmanned drones damaged the signals intelligence warship Ivan Khurs; on 4 August the landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak was severely damaged in a nighttime drone attack at Novorossiysk; on 13 September the landing ship Minsk and the attack submarine Rostov-on-Don were badly damaged by Ukrainian cruise missiles while at harbour in Sevastopol; on 4 November the cruise missile-capable corvette Askold was destroyed by French-supplied SCALP missiles while docked at the naval facilities in Kerch; and on 26 December the landing ship Novocherkassk was hit by a Ukrainian missile assault, resulting in a series of munitions detonations aboard the ship which caused severe damage. The continuation of naval warfare activity – mostly in the form of Ukrainian attacks on Russian naval assets - in the Black Sea throughout the latter half of 2023 demonstrates both the continued significance of the waterway in the ongoing conflict, and also the incidental risk posed civilian vessels, which may find themselves the victim of errant munitions or misidentification and accidental targeting by either Russian or Ukrainian forces. Indeed, this risk was highlighted on 8 November, when a Liberia-flagged civilian ship entering a port in the Black Sea region of Odesa was struck by a Russian missile, killing a harbour pilot and injuring four crew members.
2023 also saw one major incident that garnered interest in traditionally “safe” waters. On 9 June, Italian special forces launched an operation to secure the Turkish-flagged Galata Seaways cargo vessel off the Italian coast. The ship in question had been commandeered by armed assailants, believed to have been migrant stowaways, and Italian special forces were able to secure both the ship and all 22 crew members following a seven-hour operation. While this incident demonstrated how risks to commercial shipping can occur even in “safe” waters, the Galata Seaways attempted hijacking also highlighted the long-standing issue of migration in the Mediterranean.
For 2023, maritime security in the waters around the Middle East has been dominated by one major development – renewed fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, and the knock-on effect on regional shipping in the Red Sea. In early October, Israel and Hamas resumed direct conflict following a surprise attack on southern Israel by the Palestinian militant group. In solidarity with the Palestinian cause, a number of regional Iran-backed militant factions began to also target Israel, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. Initially, the Houthis’ response was limited to drone and cruise missile attacks on southern Israel, and represented only a minor threat to regional operations, slightly raising the risk profiles for commercial shipping in the Red Sea. However, in the last few weeks of 2023, Houthi militants began to directly target international shipping in the Red Sea, particularly those vessels sailing through the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, focusing on ships owned by Israelis or ships that they believe are en route to Israel. At the time of writing, 23 vessels have been involved in either attempted or successful attacks by Houthi missiles and drones in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea, as well as attacks thought to have originated from Iran. Houthi forces have even managed to successfully board and hijack vessels, including the Bahamas-flagged British-owned Galaxy Leader cargo ship, which was boarded off Saudi waters in an attack via helicopter, and the Liberia-flagged Israel-linked M/V Central Park, which was boarded by suspected Houthis in the Gulf of Aden but later rescued by the guided missile destroyer USS Mason.
Red Sea attacks 19 November - 31 December (UKMTO data)
Sources: United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)
Due to the massive deterioration in the security situation, a number of operators – including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and others – temporarily suspended some or all of their commercial operations in the Red Sea, citing elevated risk profiles as a result of the Houthi and Iranian attacks. As of early January, ocean freight rates have also spiked in response to the attacks, rising by 173% since mid-December as premiums increase due to insecurity and contracts take longer to fulfil as shipping firms direct their vessels to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal, instead sailing via the Cape of Good Hope.
In response, in late December the US announced the formation of a new multinational naval taskforce, which would patrol the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in order to intercept Houthi missiles and drones and improve overall levels of security. Launched on 18 December, Operation Prosperity Guardian saw the deployment of ships and personnel from 10 participating countries and has seen some limited successes. On 31 December it was reported that, as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, three Houthi small boats had been destroyed by helicopters from the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier, with the retaliatory attack coming in response to a distress call from the Maersk Hangzhou container ship after it was targeted by Houthis. This engagement was the first successful direct protection of a commercial ship since the multinational patrol was commenced, but naval forces have seen additional successes, including French frigate Languedoc downing two drones on 9 December, British destroyer HMS Diamond downing a drone on 15 December, and the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group downing 12 drones, three anti-ship missiles, and two cruise missiles on 26 December.
The events of November and December 2023 demonstrate both the fragility of the maritime security situation, especially in regions heavily affected by conflict, and how eruptions of conflict-based insecurity on land can easily translate into increased insecurity in nearby waters.
