COVID-19 and civil unrest: the impact on the power industry

Introduction: sounding the alarm
Throughout history, pandemics - such as the plague - have driven economic crisis, political upheaval and social unrest. They have fuelled and re-fuelled poverty, exacerbated wealth gaps, fostered crime, seen the overthrow of governments, amplified existing social fissures, localised trade and fomented nationalism and exceptionalism. It is abundantly clear that with persistent and pervasive disease there exist economic and societal costs that increase the threat of insecurity over both the short and long term. COVID-19 is no exception, and multilateral organisations are sounding the alarm.The pandemic as a political stress testOn 21 Jan 2021, Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, said at The UN Security Council that ‘The sweeping and devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are continuing to grow, and so too are the risks of instability and tension amidst glaring inequalities in the global recovery’. Observing that the pandemic has served as a political stress test as much as a structural and public health one, she elaborated on the effects, noting: ‘…the pandemic’s impact on peace and security has intensified — exacerbating inequality and corruption; breeding misinformation, stigmatization and hate speech; and creating new flashpoints for tension and increased risks of instability’.¹Driving geopolitical and security risksNon-militarized crises such as pandemics, famines and natural disasters are often neglected by scholars and practitioners in the field of international security. However, they share the same crisis characteristics of threat, uncertainty and time pressure² and consistently act as principal or secondary drivers of geopolitical and security risks. The power sector processes and transports among and between developed countries, emerging markets, developing countries (EMDCs) and less developed countries (LDCs). For most of 2021 and beyond, it is to be expected that their operations will continue to take place within territories and sea routes in varying states of crisis, presenting a kaleidoscope of uncertainty and threats. The nature of these crises will depend on diverse drivers, ranging from the geostrategic to the local and tactical, and their impact will extend well beyond 2021.But many power companies are accustomed to managing their risks in uncertain environments. Why should the situation at the tail end of COVID-19 and its aftermath demand a change in the management of risks to people, supply chains and assets? Many of the answers to this question will be found in the aggregation and breadth of threats old and new, thrown up by the uncertainties and pressures of one of the top five debt crises of the last 120 years.

COVID-19 related insecurity - the realities
Social unrestAccording to the ILO and EY, there already exists evidence to substantiate the theory and support these statements. The ILO’s Social Unrest Index predicts a level of unrest in 2021 matching that of 2011, the year of the uprisings known as the ‘Arab Sping’. Assessing the risk of disruption to business caused by the mobilisation of societal groups in response to economic, political, or social factors, analysts claim that unrest has exceeded the pre-pandemic era, with this trend expected to continue well into the next decade³.The historical patterns of general government debt (see Figure 2 on the next page) show the profound stresses that two world wars, the 2008 global banking crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic placed upon advanced and less developed economies. Much of the phenomenal debt seen in both categories is attributable to fiscal stimuli, which will eventually give way to fiscal tightening. Willis Towers Watson’s report ‘Political Risk in the Natural Resources Sector 2021⁴’ highlights strong, proven correlations between fiscal tightening and political instability, including riots, strikes, political assassinations, and violent overthrows of governments.Social and political repercussionsWhen the unprecedented increase in fiscal stimulus by EMDCs is reversed, there may be serious social and political repercussions. Furthermore, in emerging and less developed economies, the sustainability of emerging market debt will likely hit a tipping point in 2021, with more governments seeking debt relief or entering default, thereby compounding the stress⁵. Consequently, tight budgets after the pandemic could foster a political environment in which austerity, including restructuring and cuts in subsidies, becomes an economic requirement, thereby triggering a rise in social unrest.⁶ Turning back to the ‘Arab Spring’, it should not be forgotten that the withdrawal of fuel and food subsidies were primary drivers of the unrest.Expect more protests after lockdownLockdowns have served to keep many people from gathering to protest peacefully or otherwise, nor have the full financial and social effects of the lockdown yet been realised or felt. When the realities of post-COVID 19 lives and livelihoods become apparent, it is reasonable to expect a rise in resentment, protests and civil disorder. Verisk Maplecroft observe that, against a backdrop of painful economic recovery, the increase in protests is expected to be primarily driven by food insecurity and the erosion of mechanisms and institutions that have historically defused tensions such as freedoms of assembly and the press, and an independent judiciary⁷. Where public security has been weak, inadequate or rapacious in the past, budgetary constraints are likely to exacerbate insecurity, corruption and crime, together fuelling further dissatisfaction with governments.

Global examples of civil unrestThese dynamics are already at play across the globe. The list is long and varied but to illustrate:

In Chile, reduced government spending during the early months of the pandemic (May 2020) led to major disruption in the food supply chain, leading to significant increases in starvation and poverty, sparking violent protests⁸.

In Guatemala, protesters torched the Guatemalan Congress building in Nov 2020, due to budget cuts to education and health⁹.

In Iraq, unrest has spiked, due to civil servants and government workers being left unpaid amidst an already insecure environment¹⁰. Furthermore, job losses, price rises, and cuts in spending have caused increased poverty levels, leading to unrest amongst the economically marginalised¹¹.

In South Africa, major protests have occurred over job losses and wage curbs, supported by unions, due to government-imposed measures to limit economic damage¹².

The rise of petro-piracyImportantly for the oil industry, we are seeing a pronounced increase in petro-piracy. Data from the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre shows that 2020 saw more piracy incidents than 2019, and it is likely this trend will continue into 2021¹³. Lack of spending and increased insecurity amongst populations in West Africa fuels this activity, as the poor or destitute turn to criminal activity to make up for lost income, especially when security forces’ attention is diverted elsewhere¹⁴. As such, oil tankers travelling shipping routes in the Gulf of Guinea are increasingly vulnerable to piracy.“Show us the benefits”Significant social and political unrest inevitably brings either change or a backlash - nothing truly remains as before. Post-pandemic, the greater strategic challenges and opportunities that social and political unrest pose to the power sector will be radical shifts in a host community or nation’s social disposition or political leadership that can adversely affect demand and/or the prevailing regulatory and legal environment in which the company operates. Globally, demands are growing for companies themselves to respond to the underlying causes of social unrest. Rising inequality has sharpened demands for companies actively to provide visible benefits of acceptable value for all stakeholders; failure in this may erode trust and reputation15.Conclusion: understand and adapt!
What can power companies do to anticipate, mitigate and respond to these threats, old and new? It is impossible here to describe the myriad potential scenarios of threat, uncertainty and time pressure ahead in both the current crisis and coming recovery. However it is a given, dictated by the nature of crisis, that there is never enough information to allow for fully informed decisions; what we do know is that dithering usually results in failure. Logical timely and well-communicated initiatives, tested against ‘group-think’ and harnessing the best information available at the time, generally foster success.We recommended that power companies adapt their information gathering and interpretation capacity with alacrity:

Firstly, establish or scale up a full-spectrum, cross disciplinary and holistic threat identification and monitoring system (at country, regional and HQ level if necessary). This will enable the best possible identification and monitoring of trends and patterns in the economic, political and security environments, which envelop your activities and condition your supply chains. This is best done by engaging with the breadth of your people and ‘experts’ respected by them, your stakeholders and those who disagree with your activities. This should not be left solely to the security department. Consider combining them with representatives from corporate social responsibility (CSR), ESG, government relations and external consultants in order to acquire and maintain a level of sophisticated situational awareness and build scenarios for mitigation.

Secondly, be bold in communication. Show publicly how you are working with governments or communities to reduce inequalities, speak constantly with your people to better understand their fears, their predictions and their aspirations as well as the changing divisions and consensus that feed into local dynamics. Identify and map your stakeholders and those within the political economy in which you work. Understand their interests, their options and the threats they may engender. From this, identify audiences and ensure that consistent narratives are clearly communicated in an honest and effective manner.

Finally, never forget that it is what your people say and do on the ground that can shape or deflect the threats potentially arrayed against your activities. Sometimes a fortress may be the only option, but it is not a sustainable prospect. Far better to adapt in order to maintain a social licence to operate in an environment which you monitor and understand - and which accepts you.

Tim Holt is Senior Risk Advisor, Alert:24, Special Contingency Risks.
tim.holt@scr-ltd.co.uk

¹ https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14422.doc.htm
² Lipscy, P. (2020). COVID-19 and the Politics of Crisis. International Organization, 74(S1), E98-E127. doi:10.1017/S0020818320000375 available online at https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/covid19-and-the-politics-of-crisis/CFEB29F225E5238F29C3233E873F0485e-crisis
³ https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/analysis/a-dangerous-new-era-of-civil-unrest-is-dawning-in-the-united-states-and-around-the-world/
⁴https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US/Insights/2021/01/political-risk-in-the-natural-resources-sector
⁵ EY 2021 Geostrategic Outlook available at: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_gl/topics/geostrategy/geostrategy-pdf/ey-gbg-2021-geostrategic-outlook.pdf?download
⁶ Willis Towers Watson, Political risk in the natural resources sector, 2021 available at https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-GB/Insights/2021/01/political-risk-in-the-natural-resources-sector
⁷ https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/analysis/a-dangerous-new-era-of-civil-unrest-is-dawning-in-the-united-states-and-around-the-world/

⁸https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2020/05/18/986529/Protestas-incidentes-comuna-El-Bosque.html
⁹https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/guatemala-protesters-set-congress-on-fire-during-budget-protests
¹⁰ https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/08/middleeast/iraq-protests-covid-19-intl/index.html
¹¹ https://www.mei.edu/publications/iraqs-fragile-state-time-covid-19
¹² https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/7/south-africa-unions-protest-job-losses-wage-cuts
¹³ https://www.icc-ccs.org/index.php/1301-gulf-of-guinea-records-highest-ever-number-of-crew-kidnapped-in-2020-according-to-imb-s-annual-piracy-report
¹⁴ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12198-020-00218-y
¹⁵ EY 2021 Geostrategic Outlook available at: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_gl/topics/geostrategy/geostrategy-pdf/ey-gbg-2021-geostrategic-outlook.pdf?download