Welcome and summary H2 2024
Welcome to this edition of the WTW Political Risk Index, which looks at the global pattern of gray zone attacks in the emerging world. Gray zone attacks, also sometimes called hybrid warfare, refer to efforts to put pressure on rival states using measures short of war. Examples include state cyber-attacks, covert sponsorship of violent non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, and declared or undeclared economic sanctions.
These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, as so-called ‘middle powers’ have risen on the global stage, new technologies (such as cheaply available drones) have enabled remote and plausibly deniable attacks, fragile states have provided a haven for bad actors, and deeply interconnected trading partners have found themselves in positions of strategic rivalry.
Alarm about these attacks has been a national security concern for years. Businesses were shocked into awareness in 2024, as Houthi rebels based in Yemen disrupted global shipping with their attacks on civilian vessels. WTW's annual Political Risk Survey found that nearly 70% of respondents were impacted by such geopolitically related shipping disruptions in 2024.
This edition of the Index is produced in coordination with our colleagues from the WTW marine and aerospace teams – two sectors that appear particularly vulnerable to gray zone attacks. This analysis has also been supported by the WTW Research Network, which for many years has sponsored research by scholars and think tanks on the emerging issue of gray zone aggression, and the Crisis Management team, which helps companies manage violence and security risks worldwide.
In the first essay, Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at WTW, maps the global patterns of gray zone attacks, based on the detailed country profiles available in this Index. He finds that conflicts and fragile states are the main sources of gray zone flashpoints around the emerging world. He then maps the major gray zone actors in the emerging world, which are led by China, Iran, and Russia (the Index does not cover or consider gray zone action by advanced economies).
The next two essays focus on the marine sector. Elisabeth Braw, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, explains why marine assets – including not only vessels but also undersea cables and offshore oil installations – have become such a gray zone target. Reasons include the availability of sophisticated weapons and the willingness of states, particularly Russia and Iran, to violate the rules governing the world’s oceans.
Christopher Gambino, director for large and complex accounts in WTW's marine team, Laura Burns, head of political risk for the Americas at WTW, and James Packer, senior security risk analyst for Alert:24 at WTW, examine the impact of gray zone attacks on insurance markets. They find that due to insurance exclusions and cancellations, shipping companies have been forced to address gray zone risks by rerouting. Companies reliant on shipping have as a result borne much of the cost of these attacks, but they do have some recourse through trade disruption insurance.
Finally, Jared Seth of WTW’s aerospace team looks at whether the aerospace sector will become the next gray zone target. He finds that gray zone attacks are already emerging in this sector, including GPS jamming and spoofing, and suggests some measures companies can take to prepare.
I hope you find this edition of the WTW Political Risk Index useful, and I welcome your suggestions for future editions.
Evan Freely Global Head of Financial Solutions
