Interstate tensions between various countries continue to dominate the overall political landscape of the Asia Pacific region, whilst intensified intrastate conflicts and a rise in active assailant attacks, in China and Australia notably, have contributed to a more acute threat environment.
Contention between the two nations of the Korean Peninsula have further intensified with the North using noise bombing, rubbish filled balloons, and a series of ambitious missile tests for intimidation and demonstrative tactics, whereas the South have used drones to drop leaflets over Pyongyang.
Tensions between rival claimants in the South China Sea have persisted. Numerous minor naval engagements have occurred between Chinese and Philippine vessels in 2024. The status of Taiwan also continued to be a contentious issue, resulting in increased military activity in the Taiwan Strait.
The civil war in Myanmar has continued unabated. Although rebel forces have made a series of territorial gains, the ruling military junta’s forces continue to control almost all major population centers and strategic sites. Meanwhile, Pakistan has also seen a rise in violence, as separatist forces, political followers of Imran Khan, and the Afghan-based Taliban have all increased kinetic activity.
Several long simmering tensions between nations throughout Asia Pacific moved closer to boiling point during 2024. Indeed, along the Durand Line, which acts as the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the number of violent clashes increased significantly. The Afghan Taliban’s increased support for their Pakistani-based counter parts, known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), soured relations between Islamabad and Kabul as well as pre-empted a rise in military activity along the border. Pakistan’s relations with Iran were also tested following aerial strikes on one another’s territory in January.
Elsewhere in the region, India and China penned an agreement in October, which reduced tensions which had been threatening to result in a repeat of scenes witnessed in 2020 and 2021, where opposing soldiers fought hand-to-hand and with makeshift weapons along the Line of Actual Control (LoAC).
Figure 1: Security heatmap of Asia Pacific for 2024
Source: ACLED
Tensions between the littoral states of the South China Sea grew again in 2024, with those between China and the Philippines becoming particularly intense. In asserting their competing claims over small land masses, such as the Second Thomas Shoal and Spratly Islands, Beijing and Manila clashed diplomatically and at sea. Reports of confrontations detailed the use of water cannons, boardings, and collisions between vessels. In one instance, in May, after observing Chinese Coast Guard boats raiding food parcels, Philippine marines drew their weapons. Although no shots were fired, a major international incident was only narrowly avoided.
The U.S., and various other states that perceive Beijing’s claims as a threat to their interests, increased joint freedom of navigation and military exercises to challenge what they see as excessive maritime claims. Whilst there is almost certainly no appetite in Beijing to initiate an incident with its main Pacific rival, the presence of ideologically opposed military forces within the region heightens the possibility of an engagement, whether deliberate or not.
Developments on the Korean Peninsula, however, have provided the most noteworthy events and cause for concern moving into 2025.
In 2024, both North and South Korea undertook actions which, aside from other aims, served to intimidate and provoke the other. Pyongyang continued to launch missiles of varying capability throughout the year, with a total of 41 over the 12 month period, 37 of which were successful. The year’s testing program reached its zenith in late October, when North Korea confirmed the launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, which flew further and for longer than any before. Added to this, in the first days of 2025, North Korea claimed it fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead which they said, "will reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region". The launch on 6 January – Pyongyang's first in two months – came as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Seoul for talks with some of South Korea's key leaders.
The advancements seen in North Koreas’ capabilities coincided with the deployment of thousands of troops in support of Russia in its war against Ukraine, highlighting the possibility that Pyongyang received expertise from the Putin-led regime in return. Although the primary aim of these missile tests is to deter any military action by their adversaries, the launching of more capable weapon systems also acts as a direct threat to its southern neighbor.
In an even more direct assault on the psyche of the South Korean government and the country’s citizens, 2024 saw the previously sporadically used tactic of flying trash filled balloons into South Korea become the cornerstone of a four-month long antagonistic campaign. Across eleven waves of launches between May and August, over 6,000 balloons filled full of trash entered Seoul’s airspace. These resulted in interruptions to air operations, as well as highlighting clear weaknesses in South Korea’s air defenses, as several landed within the presidential compound.
Following these launches, in October, North Korea revealed they had found the remains of a South Korean unmanned aerial system in Pyongyang, an accusation not denied by Seoul. This announcement came alongside other claims of propaganda leaflets being dropped over the North Korean capital.
Figure 2: Most prevalent risks by country in 2024
Source: Alert:24
Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina resigns as Prime Minster of Bangladesh following student-led pro-democracy and anti-government protests that were marred by violence, including a reported massacre of possibly over one thousand protesters, members of the political opposition, and bystanding civilians by security forces.
Islamic State – Khorasan Province: IS-KP, Islamic State’s Afghan-based affiliate continued to conduct regular attacks against the ruling Taliban domestically, however, its attacks against foreign targets in Iran and Russia have established the group as one of the most capable and far-reaching terrorist organizations.
Aviation: Following a bird strike as it was approaching its destination, Jeju Air Flight 2216, crash landed at Muan International Airport (IATA: MWX, ICAO: RKJB) after the landing gear failed to deploy. The aircraft overran the runway and struck a berm, all 175 passengers were killed, as were four of the six crewmembers on board.
Indonesia: Following an attempt to revise regional election laws by the central government, which would have effectively outlawed smaller parties, thousands of people protested across hundreds of separate events, one fifth of which saw violence.
China: A meteoric rise in the number of active assailant incidents was reported, with the deadliest seeing 35 people killed as a result of a car ramming attack in Zhuhai.
New Caledonia: Violent protests broke out across the French overseas territory of New Caledonia after the Parisian-based government attempted to change elements of the constitution to expand the non-indigenous electorate.
South Korea: Yoon Seok Yeol declared martial law only to rescind the order the next day following almost universal derision from the public as well as from his own and opposition politicians. He was subsequently impeached, however evaded arrest for several weeks before eventually being apprehended.
North Korea: Pyongyang successfully tested its most capable missile to date, with the projectile reportedly flying further and for longer than any previous launch. Compounding this success, in the very first days of 2025, claims of a missile with hypersonic capability was announced by the Kim Jon-Un led regime.
China experienced a notable surge in mass casualty attacks in 2024. From 2019 to 2023, police recorded three to five cases each year, where perpetrators attacked pedestrians or strangers. In 2024, that number jumped to 19. A series of attacks in November 2024 including, a deadly vehicle-ramming incident in Zhuhai that killed 35 people and injured 45, a stabbing at Wuxi Vocational College in Jiangsu that left eight dead and 17 injured, and a car crash at Yongan Primary School in Hunan, highlighted the worsening security situation, with the Zhuhai incident marking the deadliest attack of its kind in a decade.
All the attacks were carried out by individuals acting alone, with no known links to militant groups, and were reported as having been driven by personal grievances or frustrations, such as divorce disputes or academic pressures. Economic factors, including high youth unemployment, significant debt, and a real estate crisis, are thought to be contributing to the rise in violence, as they have become a major source of stress for many individuals, particularly among the younger population.
Elsewhere, Australia experienced a rare and deadly mass stabbing in its largest city, Sydney, resulting in six fatalities and multiple serious injuries. The attack, which occurred at a popular shopping center, was carried out by 40-year-old Joel Cauchi, who had a history of schizophrenia and was off his medication at the time. Notably, the majority of the victims were women, with 14 of the 16 people stabbed being female, including a nine-month-old baby.
The country has witnessed a series of incidents over the past year, reflecting an increased trend of lone-actor attacks and the use of mass public violence as an outlet for a personal grievance. These include the stabbing of an Assyrian bishop and a priest during a church service in Sydney by a 16-year-old boy, as well as another incident where a teenager allegedly stabbed a man in the neck at Sydney University with a kitchen knife while dressed in camouflage gear.
In response to the increasing isolation of young men and a surge in suspected extremist plots, Australia's national terrorism threat level was elevated from "possible" to "probable”. Additionally, in December, the prime minister announced the establishment of a specialized police task force to address anti-semitism following the ongoing threats and attacks targeting the Jewish community.
The civil war in Myanmar, which was triggered following a military coup in 2021, continued, however in contrast to the initial years which were mired in stalemate, the anti-government forces achieved several high-profile battlefield victories highlighting their position in the ascendancy. In total the ruling military lost control of 91 towns, including several key international border crossings.
The most notable of these was the Kyin San Kyawt border gate along the Chinese border. This development, alongside the general trajectory of the conflict in 2024, has triggered Beijing to increase material support for the junta and become more overt in its diplomatic backing.
So far, the conflict has been fought on the peripheries of the main urban centers, the majority of which remain under the control of the military. However, the loose coalition of opposition forces are likely to begin encroaching into more densely populated areas during 2025, intensifying the fighting and exacerbating an already critical humanitarian situation.
In Pakistan, domestic terrorist groups, such as the TTP, as well as the separatist organization, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), both conducted significant mass casualty attacks in 2024, exposing the lack of security provided by the military and showcasing the militant groups’ growing capabilities, particularly in Pakistan’s two easternmost provinces. Highlighting the rising instability and levels of violence, the Pakistani military recorded the most combat deaths for a decade and the country as a whole saw a 40% increase in militant attacks compared to 2023.
Violence peaked in November, when a succession of attacks in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces resulted in hundreds of civilians and soldiers killed. Likely key to the success of the militants were the differing attack vectors employed, which included suicide bombings, ambushes of military convoys, and the choice of soft targets.
This increase in violence comes amid growing civil unrest linked to the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan by the military, in addition to a deterioration in relations with Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban government – who have adopted a more aggressive posture along the border between the two countries. The combination of these factors ensures the possibility 2025 will be at least as violent as 2024, if not more so.
The final quarter of 2024 saw Asia Pacific narrowly surpass the Middle East and North Africa as the region with the third highest number of reported kidnap for ransom cases in the world (after Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa). Local nationals made up nearly three quarters (73.5%) of the victims recorded this quarter (Figure 3) – lower than in Q3 (76.9%), Q2 (81.1%), and Q1 (82.1%) – and highlights a concerning trend in which foreigners are being increasingly targeted. The uptick was particularly notable in Thailand, where 85.7% of victims were foreigners, particularly Chinese nationals due to their perceived wealth. On 15 November, a Chinese national studying in Hong Kong was kidnapped in Bangkok where she was lured to by phone scammers impersonating police officers. The assailants demanded a CNY 10m ($1.37 million) ransom from her family for her release. INTERPOL later rescued her from a hotel room. The case marked the first time a Hong Kong-based victim has been defrauded and lured overseas. Taiwanese, Japanese, and Ukrainian citizens were also targeted.
Figure: 3 Kidnap victim profile in Asia-Pacific in Q4 by percentage
2024 has seen the Asia Pacific region retain its position as the primary global piracy hotspot. According to data published by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), the region experienced 74 instances of piracy and maritime criminality this year.
Figure 4: Actual and attempted maritime incidents in Asia Pacific by year (2021-2024)
Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau Piracy & Armed Robbery Against Ships Report January-December 2022; ICC International Maritime Bureau Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Maps 2023 & 2024.
Although the frequency of incidents reported across the region has been stable since 2022, a notable increase in incidents was witnessed in the Singapore Strait in Q4 2024, offsetting reductions in pirate activity in other areas, such as Bangladesh or Indonesia over the course of the last 12 months.
Figure 5: Actual and attempted maritime incidents in Asia Pacific by country (Q1-Q4 2024)
Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau Live Piracy & Armed Robbery Map 2024.[1]
The majority of interstate tensions and intrastate violence which exacerbated in 2024 are unlikely to see swift resolutions in the New Year, with some likely to continue to deteriorate.
Of particular concern is the burgeoning crisis developing along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Not only are relations between the two countries’ ruling military powers at their lowest ebb since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, the presence of increasingly capable terrorist and insurgent organizations on both sides of the border presents an extremely challenging and fragile security environment. The BLA, TTP, and IS-KP are likely to seize on the worsening security situation in Pakistan’s west. The Pakistani military’s ability to project sufficient power into the region will almost certainly continue to be further hampered by the activities of political supporters of Imran Khan, who remain large in number and well-organized.
This extended freedom of movement which the militant groups will likely experience during the next 12 months presents the possibility of a significant widening in those targeted, such as Pakistani government installations and individuals, property linked to Chinese economic activity in the region, and targets associated with the West.
On the Korean Peninsula, an unexpected opportunity has been gifted to Pyongyang, which will likely be exploited as fully as possible. It is unknown whether the missile test, ostensibly including hypersonic capability, at the beginning of January had been planned prior to Yoon’s declaration of martial law, however it is likely a flurry of activity will be planned to demonstrate superiority over their southern neighbor. Whilst Kim will stop short at provoking war, it is likely any demonstrative actions taken during the period in which Seoul remains in political crisis will blunt any possible positivity with South Korea’s new leaders.
As well as conflict and terrorism, risks such as active assailant, civil unrest, and crime will continue to manifest to varying degrees throughout Asia Pacific, ensuring the region will continue to present a complex and multifaceted threat environment. Indeed, whilst it remains difficult to accurately predict the frequency and locations of active assailant events, with many incidents linked to socioeconomic conditions or poor mental health, which have seen no notable upturn throughout the region, it is highly likely that numerous instances will occur. China, with its large population, growing age imbalance, and growing sense of alienation among significant facets of the population – due to the country’s rapid social and economic change over the past 40 years – is likely to sustain a sizeable number of the regional total. Other higher risk countries include Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, and Australia.
