Between 26 July and 11 August, the 2024 Summer Olympics will be held in France, followed by the Paralympics between 28 August to 8 September. Paris will serve as the host city, while events will also be held across 16 other cities of metropolitan France as well as in Tahiti, French Polynesia. According to the Paris Tourist Office, some 11 million people are expected to visit the French capital during the games, with 3.3 million of those coming from outside the Greater Paris area. In addition to those attending in person, the event will potentially reach an audience of billions via live television broadcasts and streaming, underscoring the high-profile nature of the event, which has seen numerous globally significant organisations clamour to be associated with it.
Proposed venues for Paris
Source: Paris 2024 Official Website
Although the hosting of the Summer Olympics presents abundant benefits for France and its capital in particular, there are also numerous challenges facing the organisers, in addition to a range of issues that those attending the games should be aware of. Logistically, the volume of people converging on Paris and specific venues within the city will highly likely result in significant travel disruption, as the city’s roads, metro, and principal hubs – like Gare du Nord and Saint-Lazare stations – come under significant strain.
From a security perspective, the task of securing the games from terrorist incidents has remained a priority, with the threat of Jihadist terrorism increasing in prominence and remaining unresolved since France made its bid for the games, as highlighted by recent attacks motivated by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Added to this, elements of French society regularly show a propensity to utilise protests as a means of highlighting their grievances, with bouts of significant unrest witnessed in Paris in the last year, whilst concerns relating to criminality also persist.
France officially launched its Olympic bid in June 2015, thereby coinciding with a period of increased terrorism threat in the country marked by major attacks conducted by Islamist extremist groups. Over a three-day spree commencing on 7 January 2015, the deadliest attack to impact the country in 50 years saw two al-Qaeda (AQ) gunmen target the offices of Charlie Hebdo and an associate attack a kosher supermarket, killing a total of 17 people, in the name of Islamic State (IS). In the same year, the severity of these attacks was surpassed when, on 13 November 2015, suicide bombers and gunmen killed 131 people and injured 413 more as they targeted an international football match and a packed theatre in Paris.
The November 2015 Paris attack prompted a state of emergency to be imposed, initially for a 12-day period though subsequently extended, including in response to the July 2016 Bastille Day attack in Nice, that saw a truck driven into revellers kill 86 people and injure 434 others. Despite ongoing attacks, the continued state of emergency, and a relative uptick in terrorist attacks in France during 2017 – with nine attacks occurring that year compared to five in 2016 and six the year prior – the Paris bid was confirmed as being successful in September 2017.
France has sought to pro-actively tackle Islamist extremism since 2015, by introducing counter-radicalisation programmes and legislation, although the threat posed by terrorism has remained a key concern. These measures have helped to reduce the threat posed by relatively complex attacks, such as those involving explosives and military-grade firearms, in recent years. However, the nature of terrorism in France – as elsewhere – has increasingly taken the form of attacks by small cells or individuals, either remotely radicalised or inspired by groups such as IS, that involve everyday items such as knives. Terrorism of this nature is far more difficult for the authorities to disrupt, with relatively fewer opportunities to intercept communications and detect preparatory activities.
Terror attacks recorded in France since 2013
Source: BBC, Countering Extremism Project
Adding to the challenges facing the French authorities is a combination of a large Muslim population, a questionable track record on integration, imposition of divisive secular laws, and grievances resulting from foreign policy, all of which have long served to drive radicalisation and inspire attacks in the country. There have been numerous recent cases of developments relating to emotive issues prompting individuals to launch attacks, including the Charlie Hebdo cartoon saga and, more recently, the Israel-Hamas war.
As France is home to both the largest Muslim and Jewish communities in Europe, the nation is particularly exposed to tensions arising from the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. At the time of writing, two attacks have so far been linked to the issue: the stabbing to death of a teacher in Arras, northern France on 13 October by a Chechen-origin man; and a knife and hammer attack launched close to Paris’ Eiffel Tower, that killed a German-Filipino tourist on 2 December. These incidents demonstrate how sensitive issues can potentially cause a violent reaction in France, and should the conflict in the Middle East continue into summer 2024 there is potential for it to prompt further incidents during the games.
In addition to the threat of more sporadic attacks, the Paris Olympics will undoubtedly represent an aspirational target for international terrorists, with the event’s high-profile nature meaning that any attack will be subjected to both amplified media coverage and concern. While the French authorities have previously hosted mega-events such as the 2016 UEFA European Championship finals without incident, the Paris games will ambitiously see its opening ceremony staged along the banks of the Seine – rather than be confined to a stadium – allowing some 600,000 to attend, while increasing the burden on those policing the event and the opportunities for an attack to unfold.
Whilst it is true that an attack, should it occur during the games, would most likely be low-impact and rudimentary in nature, given frequent reports of criminals in France possessing military-style weapons it cannot be ruled out that an attack involving automatic weapons or even explosives could occur. In addition to the threat of attacks, disruption due to security alerts is also a real possibility. It is worth noting that a sharp uptick in hoax bomb threats – impacting numerous airports, schools, and prominent sites such as the Palace of Versailles and the Louvre – coincided with the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and further similar incidents are a possibility, especially as the French authorities will maintain a heightened state of alert during the games.
During 2023, France experienced several serious bouts of unrest that demonstrate the continued potential for protests to manifest in the country over a host of issues, including in response to controversial political or socio-economic developments. Notably, on 19 January, over one million people took part in protests and strikes over reforms intended to increase the country’s retirement age from 62 to 64, kicking off a protest movement that gained significant traction in major French cities during the first half of the year and resulted in significant disruption owing to the participation of labour unions, with strikes affecting public transport and air travel.
Anti-pension reform protesters even threatened to undermine the hosting of the Olympics, as demonstrated by the emergence of the slogan “no withdrawal, no Olympics” on social media and the brief occupation of the Paris Olympic Games headquarters staged by protesters on 6 June. Members of striking unions also cut power to the Olympic Village and the Stade de France, disrupting ongoing site preparations. Furthermore, news reports in May claimed that some activists had applied to be volunteers at the games, solely out of intent to disrupt proceedings by not turning up to fulfil their duties, though it remains to be seen if this plan will come into fruition, given that the movement has abated significantly.
While the probability that protests inspired by the opposition to pension reforms will target the games has almost certainly reduced, it should be noted that the CGT labour union, seen as the driving force behind the protests, have threatened strikes during the games. In November, the CGT said that if public concerns of sector workers – including those in the police, transport and healthcare sectors – such as compensation, the ability to take leave, as well organising childcare, accommodation, and travel during the games are not taken into account, then they would take action in 2024.
Number of recorded protests in Paris 2023
Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
In addition to becoming a focal point for workers' grievances, other groups have been vocal in decrying the costs of the games, as well as harbouring concerns over their longer-term impact on Paris. The cost of hosting the event has increased, with the authorities citing inflationary pressures. Although the government has made much of its “low-cost model” that will see it contribute EUR 1.3bn – with the remainder of the approximately EUR 3.7bn budget coming from private sector – these sums, together with the organising committee’s EUR 4.4bn, have still provoked negative sentiment, during a period where the increasing cost of living has impacted many. In addition, attending the games is viewed as prohibitively expensive for many, with ticket prices being criticised and public transport costs reportedly set to double – though not for season ticket holders – for the duration of the games, while accommodation prices have similarly spiralled.
The cost of hosting and attending the games has brought to the fore underlying socio-economic divisions within Paris. Activists and residents have aired concerns that Saint-Denis – a northern Paris suburb reputed to be mainland France’s poorest area – where the Olympic Village along with the Stade de France, and Aquatics Centre are located, will be affected by gentrification following the games, leading to displays of negative sentiment. Concerns have also been raised over the treatment of Paris’ homeless migrant population, who the authorities have purportedly sought to clear out at an accelerated rate, ostensibly over health of public safety concerns, in addition to attempting to shut down food distribution points in some neighbourhoods. In October, activists staged a protest and projected the slogan “The Other Side of the Medal” on the main offices of Paris 2024 in Saint-Denis, while 70 non-governmental organisations issued a letter to the regional authorities warning of the risk of “social cleansing” in an effort to hide poverty.
The apparent mistreatment of migrants will do little to improve the sense of marginalisation felt in poorer areas of France and Paris including Saint-Denis, which itself has a large migrant population. Such areas continue to be prone to significant unrest in cases where controversial incidents have exposed societal schisms. Notably, the 29 June killing of 17-year-old French-Algerian Nahel Merzouk by traffic police in Nanterre, in the western suburbs of Paris, sparked riots in French cities, including in the capital. The rioting was particularly unruly over the first five nights and widely described as being unprecedented in its scale and intensity. An estimated 5,800 cars were set alight, commercial businesses were looted, over 1,000 public buildings including schools, community centres and town halls were vandalised, 269 police stations were attacked, and 700 police and military personnel were injured.
While the most serious unrest had abated by 4 July, the rioting nonetheless underscored the existence of deep divisions within French society, which can explode under certain circumstances. Related tensions are strongly felt in Saint-Denis. Indeed, amid the aforementioned protests of late-June and early-July 2023, the under-construction Aquatics Centre was lightly damaged as the result of buses being set alight at a depot in its proximity. Whilst not directly targeting the site, the incident nevertheless highlights the potential for high-intensity protest in Paris’ less affluent suburbs and the potential risk facing infrastructure during unrest.
As with any major European city, especially those that attract a large number of visitors, opportunistic street-level crime poses a persistent risk in Paris, especially in less affluent areas and those that are popular tourists. Although levels of security will be heightened during the games, the number of people converging on Paris and other cities will likely prove tempting for individuals involved in petty crimes such as pickpocketing in public areas, while more serious and confrontational crimes will remain a possibility in more isolated areas and after dark.
French officials have publicly stated that securing the games poses a challenge. Some 45,000 police and Gendarmes are expected to be deployed for the duration of the games, in addition to at least 17,000 private security staff and stewards. Cordons are set to be put in place around Olympic venues, for which residents will need a “valid reason” to pass, in addition to registering any visitors. Strict controls on freedom of movement proposed will also extend to vehicle traffic, with drivers being required to apply for and produce a QR code to enter secure zones, while metro stops assessed as being vulnerable to attacks will also be closed.
Although the security plan is comprehensive and French security forces are extremely capable, concerns remain, with the decision to stage the opening ceremony along the River Seine – allowing some 600,000 visitors to take in a procession of 160 boats along a 6km route – being a particularly contentious issue. Indeed, this ambitious proposal has come under recurring scrutiny and although organisers and ministers have been resolute in insisting the plan will go ahead, on 20 December, President Emmanuel Macron stated that France is prepared to move the opening ceremony, should the security situation dictate it. Macron also alluded to the existence of a “Plan B, Plan C, et cetera” in relation to the ceremony.
While extensive measures to secure the Olympics are necessary, they have contributed towards increasingly negative sentiment amongst Parisiens. In December, the BBC reported that opinion polls demonstrated that 44% of residents in the Paris region believed that the games were “a bad thing”, nearly double the number that felt the same way in 2021. Many Parisiens, 52% according to the poll cited by the BBC, were also considering leaving the capital for the durations of the games.
While much of this negative sentiment can likely be put down to anxiety over complex and disruptive security plans being enforced and the expected influx of people, it does nonetheless demonstrate the existence of some opposition to the games, potentially increasing the prospect that grievances will be aired during the event itself. At the time of writing, protests and strikes organised by unions over strains placed on their workers supporting the Olympics represents the most likely risk of unrest facing the event, with the touted participation of police and transport workers presenting a potential direct risk to its staging.
It cannot be ruled out that protests driven by underlying societal tensions will also erupt in the run-up to or even during the games, in a similar way to the events that transpired following the shooting of French-Algerian teenager Nahel Merzouk by police in June. It is unlikely that the relative concentration of Olympic-related activity in poorer French suburbs – where these tensions are most keenly felt – has served to positively mend ties. It is also possible that the implementation of security measures, threat of gentrification, allegations of mistreatment of homeless migrants, and overall sense that the Olympics is an event for those with money, will only highlight and further widen divisions within French society. As the protests in response to Nahel Merzouk illustrated, tensions in Paris can explode in response to such emotive events. Should a similar unforeseen development transpire during the games, it cannot be ruled out that intense protests will follow that security forces would be challenged in containing.
Increasing tensions resulting from international developments may also increase the risk facing the games. As the Israel-Hamas conflict has demonstrated, segments of French society are sensitive to developments in the Middle East and should the conflict worsen, or other events transpire that are perceived as being anti-Islam to coincide with the games, a violent reaction in France cannot be ruled out. In the current context, the participation of Israeli athletes could prove to be a particular flashpoint. While the French security forces have proven adept at preventing large-scale attacks from occurring and this situation will persist, small scale rudimentary attacks initiated by individuals with little planning remain a credible threat to publicly accessible area, including those away from venues.
The French authorities will likely succeed in ensuring the overall security of the games, however, those attending or otherwise supporting the event should remain aware of the potential threats and how they can be influenced by a host of internal and external factors.
