Polarisation in North America continued throughout 2023, bolstered by long-standing racial tensions, environmental concerns, and political issues mainly pertaining to immigration, abortion, and foreign policy stances. Sensitivities surrounding the various controversial topics have deepened rifts, further contributing to clashes amid opposing ideological groups. Most demonstrations remained peaceful, although the year still witnessed over 200 violent incidents. While this is a decline from 2022, a sharp rise in the number of incidents began in September amid various union and workers rights’ movements, and again in October following the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Total incidents in the United States
Source: ADL
In both the U.S. and Canada, demonstrations related to the conflict made up more than half of all events in October, with more than 600 and 150 events, respectively. This momentum is anticipated to continue into the early months of 2024, with developments in the Gaza conflict providing the opportunity for renewed protest momentum. While mostly peaceful, some demonstrations have been disruptive to vehicle traffic, public transportation, and business operations – particularly in the U.S. Various pro-Palestine groups have blocked highways leading to major airports, such as Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York City. University students throughout the United States and Canada have also held protests and marches across campuses in the weeks following 7 October. Protesters calling for a ceasefire blocked major roads and highways in at least three separate instances in San Francisco, New York, and Boston. Demonstrators have also sought to occupy or otherwise block access to corporations and businesses deemed supportive of the Israeli government. While protest-related disruptions remain isolated events, developments in Gaza could prompt an escalation as groups continue to press the U.S. to call for a ceasefire and end military support to Israel.
In addition to the onset of the latest Israel-Hamas conflict in October, sparking protesters to mobilise for pro-Israel and pro-Palestine stances, officials reported a rise in antisemitic, anti-Arab, and Islamophobic violent incidents. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) recorded a total of 312 antisemitic incidents between 7-23 October 2023, 190 of which were directly linked to the war in Israel and Gaza. During the same period in 2022, ADL received preliminary reports of 64 incidents, including four that were Israel-related. The latest numbers represent a 337% increase in reported incidents in 2023, when compared to 2022. The ADL additionally claims October represents the highest number of reported events since it began tracking antisemitic incidents in 1979. Several notable incidents during this period include when a woman drove her car into a Black Hebrew Israelites' building in Indianapolis, Indiana, and when a man shot three students of Palestinian descent in Burlington, Vermont. Several violent hate crimes also took place in Canada. Among the notable incidents in Toronto, two Jewish organisations were targeted with incendiary devices, a Muslim taxi driver was sprayed with an unknown substance, and a man used a bike lock to assault several Muslim people outside a mosque.
In Canada, government agencies logged an increase in reported firearm-related violence during 2023, in line with steady increases since 2019. In Toronto, however, the Toronto Police Service's public safety data portal logged 326 shootings resulting in 153 killed or injured, a 30% decrease from the 469 shootings and 270 killed or injured recorded in 2017. Among the most notable incidents in 2023, two armed men fired upon a wedding in the capital Ottawa, killing two and injuring six. Mass shootings are relatively uncommon in Canada, and in 2023, the reported incidents were due to Intimate Partner Domestic Violence (IPDV), targeted attacks, and organised crime, rather than terrorism, extremism, or hate crimes. The influx of firearms from the U.S. has contributed to uniformly rising mass shooting and active assailant incidents, despite legislative efforts to tighten gun ownership and operation laws. In the U.S., mass shootings and gun violence continue to pose a notable risk to operations, though 2023 saw an approximate 8% overall decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence compared to 2022. Gun control discussions remain a heavily debated topic, although several states are making legislative changes amid calls from the public. In 2023, New York, Illinois, and Texas introduced bills restricting gun access, while Colorado, Maryland, and Washington passed several firearm control laws. Regardless, the year witnessed 656 mass shootings, of which 40 were mass killings (defined as three or more deaths during the incident). Shootings predominantly occurred in major cities along the Southwest, Southeast, and Midwest regions. Among the most notable:
On 25 October, a gunman opened fire at a bowling alley and bar in Lewiston, Maine killing 18 people and wounding 13 others.
On 6 May, a gunman opened fire in the parking lot of an outlet mall in Allen, Texas. Eight people were killed, and seven others were injured in the attack.
On 10 April, a former employee opened fire at a bank in downtown Louisville, Kentucky, killing five people and wounding eight others.
On 27 March, a former student at a local Christian school in Nashville, Tennessee, killed six people and wounded another, after attacking the school during class.
On 13 February, a gunman killed three people and wounded five others at Michigan State University’s campus in East Lansing, Michigan.
On 21 January, an assailant opened fire at a Lunar New Year celebration in Monterey Park, California, killing 11 people and injuring 13 others.
Recorded mass shootings by state
Source: Gun Violence Archive
While most active assailant incidents are linked to factors including mental health, the loss of employment, and interpersonal disputes, right-wing extremism continues to play a role in driving mass killings in the U.S. Investigators note that the Allen, Texas shooter ascribed to various far-right and White supremacist beliefs which likely motivated his attack. Right-wing extremism is also suspected to have played a role in a 26 August shooting in Jacksonville, Florida, in which a White gunman killed three Black individuals inside a convenience store. Law enforcement noted that the assault rifle used in the attack bore neo-Nazi symbols; the gunman had also previously espoused anti-Black and White supremacist beliefs. Overall, right-wing extremism accounts for a small portion of mass shootings in the U.S., although there are concerns that increasing polarisation in the country could lead to a rise in political violence – particularly as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
Terrorism remains an ongoing security concern, particularly those acts originating from lone radicalised individuals and groups sympathetic to Islamist extremist causes. The latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report, which quantitively measures the impact of terrorism in 163 countries, revealed the U.S. recorded its lowest score since 2012. According to the report, the U.S. scored 4.8, while Canada scored 3.27, with 0 representing no impact from terrorism and 10 representing the highest measurable impact of terrorism. The report also showed politically motivated terror incidents have surpassed those motivated by religious ideology and continue to be the most common type of terrorism, in line with global trends. The most notable incidents during 2023 include several shootings in the U.S. being investigated as terrorism due to their explicit targeting of minority groups, and the arrest of several groups in Canada plotting to carry out attacks against Jewish communities. The Department of Homeland Security reports, the “threat of violence from violent extremists radicalised in the U.S. will remain high but largely unchanged.” Single-issue and political extremist groups pose a continued threat to medical research, pharmaceutical sites, and agricultural and energy companies.
In addition to the physical threat posed by these groups, recent years have recorded a growth in cyberattacks directed at critical infrastructure. Of the most significant cyberattacks, a campaign aimed at Cisco IOS XE systems in mid-October resulted in a privilege escalation vulnerability that exposes the system to full remote control by the attacker, prompting a maximum severity rating of 10 out of 10 from Cisco. While details on the vulnerability have not yet been released, Cisco recommends disabling the internet access feature on affected devices, prompting widespread security concerns for those devices previously connected. Additionally in 2023, an Okta breach resulted in the theft of all of Okta’s customer support management system data, resulting in the leak of the username and email address of every Okta user. Okta systems related to government and federal environments were not impacted. The fast growth of artificial intelligence (AI) tools continues to result in ever more efficient cyberattacks, and officials are concerned over the potential use of AI misinformation campaigns, particularly ahead of an election year. The 2024 election cycle will be a key event for possible violence and targeting of election infrastructure, processes, and personnel. Additionally, federal agencies continue to posture cyber infrastructure to anticipate a strong campaign led by foreign actors. Lone extremist actors typically have no ties to established groups and are often self-radicalised online. This can make predicting and disrupting attacks difficult for law enforcement, as warning signs of an impending attack can be interspersed through various social media and messaging platforms. There is a moderate risk of unrest ahead of the November 2024 election, particularly if Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination but is convicted in one of his state or federal criminal trials. Growing polarisation will likely continue to trigger localised incidents of unrest that will remain overall peaceful. Precedent indicates protests near universities and urban areas will increase ahead of the 2024 election.
FY southwest land border encounters by month
Source: U.S. Southern Border Migrant Encounters FY 2021–FY 2023
Record encounters of migrants arriving from a growing number of countries have complicated border and immigration security. In 2023, The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recorded a total of nearly 61 million nonimmigrant admissions to the United States across all borders. Specifically, this included approximately 15.1 million unauthorised nonimmigrant admissions, a 72% increase from the same period in 2022. Of these admissions, DHS reported 2.5 million encounters (defined as inadmissible, apprehensions, and expulsions) of migrants occurring at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2023. This figure represents a new historic high, topping the prior year’s record. Of those 2.5 million, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reported a total of 142 thousand removals. This increase aligns with ongoing immigration system recovery from COVID-19-related public health challenges and financial difficulties in countries of origin. DHS further states 65% of nonimmigrant admissions came from the top five countries of Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, India, and South Korea. Late in the year, several legislators in the southern states pushed for state-level bills allowing state law enforcement to enforce responsibilities typically attributed to federal enforcement officers. Federal courts have already signalled prolonged legal battles ahead, as they have ruled immigration enforcement is solely a federal agency responsibility. Regardless of background legal discussions, the southern border states will remain subject to incidents of spill-over violence, particularly Arizona, Texas, and New Mexico, where Mexican organised crime groups continue to operate.
2023 witnessed an increase in regulatory requirements across several sectors, primarily related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) legislation. While U.S. agencies have been slower to adopt these regulations than European agencies, trends indicate state-level legislation will continue to drive most compliance requirements, as exemplified by several bills issued this year. The political divide in the U.S. continues to come into focus as several states take extreme measures on both pro- and anti-ESG frameworks. In Arkansas, Iowa, and New Hampshire, states have enacted legislation rolling back child labour protections, while in states such as Colorado, California and Illinois, bills have passed requiring companies to further integrate sustainability and climate-related practices.
Of these, the most notable related to active assailant and risk mitigation requirements is California Senate Bill 553 (SB 553). SB 553 was enacted on 30 September 2023 in response to the rising number of mass shootings and instances of workplace violence in the state and the U.S. more broadly. SB 553 requires employers to maintain an effective plan to mitigate workplace violence and provide requisite training to all their employees. Although the law is limited to employers located in California, there is some speculation as to whether similar legislation may be considered in other states in coming years. Changes to ESG requirements may cause wide ranging implications and requisite changes to security risk management programs. While some organisations may have the new requirements met via current risk management measures, others will need enhancement and new programs developed from scratch within the next year. As ESG legislation changes continue to trend, organisations would benefit from a comprehensive risk assessment to identify and resolve gaps in their risk management programs.
